Phil Boon opened the Innospec Fuels For 2020 Conference this morning in Turnberry Scotland.
The big questions of the day we are reviewing over the next few days are:
- Pace of change and market penetration of EV’s and PHEV’s
- Rise of Autonomous vehicles and the impact on miles driven and demand for fuels
- Impact of Car Sharing and the potential to actually increase demand by providing access to cars through sharing to those that do not have a car today
- Changes resulting from Uber and other On Demand transportation companies and how they will impact demand for transportation and fuels
- Evolving internal combustion engine technologies and how they will impact emissions, demand, and mix of fuels used as ICE engines increasingly must compete with EV options.
The biggest question for me is will all of these individual trends increase or decrease the overall mobility that is available to individuals and businesses. Mobility and access to transportation has a huge impact on personal freedom, access to economic opportunity, and the ability to improve one’s individual outcomes in life. There is the potential that each of these trends result in continued reductions in cost for each mile we move could produce significant improvements for the least fortunate among us.
Do you remember your first bicycle, first car, or maybe your first plane for some of you global jet setters. Regardless of your starting point each increase in mobility results in more freedom, more choice, more opportunity for income, or access to increased growth for you or your company.
What I see in all of these trends is increased competition for the transportation market. That competition will drive down costs even further than what we have already achieved. Those reduced costs will create economic growth in all kinds of markets that have not been predicted yet, but like all change there will be consequences and the carnage for many having to compete in a market that will be remade over the next 20 years will be substantial.