We used to talk about peak oil from a production standpoint, now standard thinking is that a lot of oil will be left in the ground as demand declines permanently.
Great article below from Wall Street Journal on the many reasons why this demand driven peak will be further off than many, some from major oil companies themselves, expect.
British energy giant BP suggested that oil demand might have already reached its apex in 2019 if one were to imagine a world that doubles down on policies that restrict carbon emissions.
The other fascinating dynamic that is going to play out is the future price of gasoline vs electricity. We know growing demand increases prices for commodities and declining demand drives prices down. So while electricity is a cheaper fill up today what will happen to that relative advantage as more power is demanded and less gasoline is consumed.
This years pandemic may have provided an early preview of future moves. The articles notes that, “while gasoline prices are set to increase this year, the price EIA forecasts is still 22% below the average seen for 2010-2019, while residential electricity prices are expected to be 7% above the ten-year average.”